Donald Trump outside the White House in Washington DC yesterday. Picture: Bloomberg US President Donald Trump’s views on trade can’t be reconciled with the way economists treat trade. The two sides are so divided that it is hard to even have a discussion: Trump talks constantly about ... Read more
Putting the global “debt bomb” in perspective – seven reasons to be alert but not alarmed — Dr Shane Oliver, Chief Economist for AMP Capital
Key Points Global debt levels have reached new records. Countries with very high gross debt to GDP include Japan, Belgium, Canada, Portugal and Greece. The main areas of rising debt since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) have been public debt in developed countries (with more to come in the ... Read more
Housing crash unlikely, based on real debt levels —by Don Stammer, Columnist for The Australian
Total interest payments on mortgages are close to their long-term trends Predictions abound that Australian house prices will collapse, causing a banking crisis and economy-wide recession. And it’s mainly because of the mountain of household debt. Of course, forecasts of an impending ... Read more
RBA Monetary Policy Decision and Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor —5 June 2018
Media ReleaseStatement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision Number 2018-14 Date 5 June 2018 At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent. The global economy has strengthened over the past year. A number of advanced economies are ... Read more
China’s economy is pretty stable – but what about high debt levels and other risks? — By Dr Shane Oliver, Chief Economist for AMP Capital
Key points Chinese economic growth has been stable since 2016 at around 6.8%. Expect Chinese growth this year of around 6.5% and inflation of 2.5-3%. Key risks regarding China relate to the policy focus shifting to reducing leverage and reform, rapid debt growth, a trade war with the US and ... Read more
Chinese downturn would not hurt Australia much: IMF —written by David Uren for the Australian Business Review
A sharp downturn in the Chinese economy would have only a modest effect on Australia, provided it did not turn into a broader financial crisis, an International Monetary Fund modelling exercise has found. Australia’s other trading partners in Asia and the US would pick up much of the slack left ... Read more
Italy is a worry – but 3 reasons not to be concerned about an Itexit —By Dr Shane Oliver, Chief Economist for AMP Capital
22 May 2018 Key points A populist coalition government in Italy is negative for Italian assets. Lingering uncertainty about a push for Italy to exit the Euro is likely a negative for the Euro too, though an Itexit and a Euro break up remain unlikely. Eurozone shares are likely to ... Read more
An additional 21 great investment quotes —Compiled By Dr Shane Oliver, Chief Economist for AMP Capital
17 May 2018 Introduction Investing can be frustrating and depressing at times, particularly if you don’t understand how markets work and don’t have the right mindset. The good news is that the basics of investing are timeless, and some have a knack of encapsulating these in a sentence or two ... Read more
After the Australian household debt and east coast housing booms – interest rates on hold until 2020 —by Dr Shane Oliver, Chief Economist for AMP Capital
02 May 2018 Key points The RBA has left interest rates on hold for 21 months. A rate hike is now unlikely until 2020: as growth is likely to remain weaker than the RBA expects; wages growth and inflation are likely to remain low for longer; bank lending standards are tightening ... Read more
Monetary Policy Decision —Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor 1 May 2018
Number 2018-11 Date 1 May 2018 At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent. The global economy has strengthened over the past year. A number of advanced economies are growing at an above-trend rate and unemployment rates are low. The Chinese ... Read more
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